Ebola Updates.

From a September 23rd publication of this article in NEJM, there are a number of graphs and tables that track current Ebola cases. The last observed data points are from end of August and projections for September are far below the numbers recently cited by CDC. The upper limits within the projected curves appear to be about 1/2 of the actual reported numbers. Therefore disease spread appears to be accelerating and while the last reported total case count is 6,263 with half of them dead, the number of cases by mid October will likely be much higher than the 14,000 predicted earlier. I think it will be closer to 30,000.  Medical delivery systems also seem to be breaking down in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea. These are the countries most affected by this epidemic. To make matters even scarier, today I read that Congo , I think the Democratic Republic of..., just reported an outbreak. While Liberia has about 4 million people with latest reported number just above 3,000 infections (that's one infected person per thousand), Congo has 77 million people.
So please consider what these projections mean for the above mentioned countries. While 1/1000 people are currently infected, the CDC expects the epidemic to reach one of 1/100 people by January and if nothing changes, one in 10 will be infected there in the Spring of 2015. One half of them will die.

People are going to run...

Run where?

Another important note to consider: If the disease spread really continues according to these predictions, then I don't think it is being spread by solely through the exposure to fluids of an infected person. If it really is that infectious, then airborne spread is likely and people hanging around the sick should be wearing their own air supply.  N95 masks may not be enough considering only a few viral particles are enough to transmit the infection.

On a final note, consider the panic that will hit NYC when a infected person with Ebola is diagnosed there and someone starts coughing on the subway. Consider what will happen if this epidemic reaches Mexico City.  this may prove to be a very volatile winter.