Sunday, September 28, 2014

Ebola Updates.

From a September 23rd publication of this article in NEJM, there are a number of graphs and tables that track current Ebola cases. The last observed data points are from end of August and projections for September are far below the numbers recently cited by CDC. The upper limits within the projected curves appear to be about 1/2 of the actual reported numbers. Therefore disease spread appears to be accelerating and while the last reported total case count is 6,263 with half of them dead, the number of cases by mid October will likely be much higher than the 14,000 predicted earlier. I think it will be closer to 30,000.  Medical delivery systems also seem to be breaking down in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea. These are the countries most affected by this epidemic. To make matters even scarier, today I read that Congo , I think the Democratic Republic of..., just reported an outbreak. While Liberia has about 4 million people with latest reported number just above 3,000 infections (that's one infected person per thousand), Congo has 77 million people.
So please consider what these projections mean for the above mentioned countries. While 1/1000 people are currently infected, the CDC expects the epidemic to reach one of 1/100 people by January and if nothing changes, one in 10 will be infected there in the Spring of 2015. One half of them will die.

People are going to run...

Run where?

Another important note to consider: If the disease spread really continues according to these predictions, then I don't think it is being spread by solely through the exposure to fluids of an infected person. If it really is that infectious, then airborne spread is likely and people hanging around the sick should be wearing their own air supply.  N95 masks may not be enough considering only a few viral particles are enough to transmit the infection.

On a final note, consider the panic that will hit NYC when a infected person with Ebola is diagnosed there and someone starts coughing on the subway. Consider what will happen if this epidemic reaches Mexico city.  this may prove to be a very volatile winter.

Saturday, September 27, 2014

Why it is wrong to call the Oklahoma murderer a lone wolf.

The vicious murder of a Christian woman was not an isolated incident or one perpetrated by an uncontrolled schizophrenic. Every day, Muslims attack the rest of us and those that actually commit these murders, are surrounded by cheerleaders in their community. How often do we hear about recent converts into this religion, that "suddenly" wage violent jihad? How often do we see evidence of agitation for such murders that take place in their mosques? Are their cheerleaders and spiritual guides really blameless?

One solution would be to demolish the mosque that he attended and deport his imam and everyone else that urged this jackass to commit this barbarity.  If there is no place to deport them, then I would send them to prison until they learn to behave themselves like descent people. On a concluding note, this really is a war against the American people, our society, and our choice of government. In a war, killing the enemy is the long established norm. Otherwise you are destined to lose the war.

Thursday, August 21, 2014

How We Lose Wars.

I was home watching TV today and on the History channel, shows about the Vietnam war played much of the day. The news stories of were uniformly opposed to American involvement. At one point they showed how crossing into Cambodia, allowed American forces to capture huge arms depots from the North Vietnamese. Essentially Cambodia was a safe zone where North Vietnamese would hide their forces and equipment. This move into Cambodia should have been hailed as a military victory, but instead it led to non-stop student protests and condemnation from MSM news sources. According to History channel, Americans were treated to a non-stop barrage of pictures of disfigured American soldiers; 90 percent of all news shows were devoted to this narrative every day.  When you think of Communist infiltrators affecting political decisions within our government, a much more successful infiltration affected our news culture and Hollywood.  No wonder we pulled out of Vietnam in defeat.

In recent conflicts, we went into Iraq and quickly succeeded in most of our military goals. At the time this war began, most of the American public were solidly behind this action and news stories were also largely supportive of our armed forces but, in time, this changed.  Obama achieved the destruction of all American achievements from the Bush era and under the current barrage of defeatist propaganda I don't see how we can defeat anyone.

We have a divisive leadership in the White House, MSM works towards same goal of weakening our country, and the culture permeating colleges and entertainment is also one of defeatism.  Under present conditions, we can only lose.  We must change our situation at home, if we are to survive as a nation and if we are to save our civilization.

Wednesday, August 6, 2014

Ebola Concerns.

Two good articles address this topic at today's American Thinker web site. It appears that there is a reasonable concern for possible airborne transmission of this virus and the medical staff working with the 2 returned American patients are appropriately dressed. This also explains London's actions regarding cancelling flights to parts of West Africa dealing with this epidemic.  Read for yourself here and here.

On the other hand, is the attention being given to Ebola another distraction? The border crisis in the US and a whole host of other problems caused by the Obama administration, aren't receiving as much news coverage now.  This administration certainly excels at taking us from one crisis to another.

Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Interesting Headlines at Breitbart Today.

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Oh, Oh, Part Two.

A Blaze post from today mentioned that 6 New Yorkers are being tested for Ebola and an Ohio woman. All of them apparently recently traveled here from a place where many are sick with Ebola, and all of them displayed some of the symptoms common to such an infection.  Unfortunately, these symptoms are not specific; they are fever, nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea. Just wait till the Flu season is here.  Same symptoms but, at this point, influenza is infinitely more common. Since we won't be able to isolate everyone with these symptoms, coming from West Africa, when so many will display them...we won't isolate them and someone sick with Ebola will arrive here and make others sick.  It is only a matter of time.

Monday, August 4, 2014

Oh, Oh.

A traveler from West Africa lands in NY and is hospitalized with high fever and diarrhea...Mount Sinai Hospital says "All is well"; we're testing him for ebola but we don't think he has it because he still lives.  Ahm... the 2 confirmed Ebola infected patients are still alive after being evacuated from Liberia. While it kills almost uniformly in poor African villages, one cannot say that it will remain as individually lethal in the USA. Instead of 90% lethality it may be only 50% or less. That is not necessarily a good thing as it may lead to greater number of infections and consequently more dead. Also the reassurance about Ebola only being spread by such fluids as blood and urine is misleading; I doubt the volunteers in Liberia that became infected were being peed on by the locals infected with Ebola and I also doubt they were sharing needles with them. I am certain that it is more easily transmitted than HIV, and what has kept this bug at bay was the fact that a small village would get infected and wiped out, and that was the end of a local outbreak. This particular strain doesn't kill as fast and hence greater spread.  If it establishes a local reservoir in the good old USA, then oh, oh.... and the we'll stop caring about Obama's criminal activities and those illegals might start moving back to South America. By then, it will be a pandemic.