Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Appearances





I have been checking Ebola case counts on the CDC and WHO websites, daily over the past month. By mid September, Liberia was reporting close to 100 new cases per day and the outbreak was perfectly following a logarithmic graph. The rate of increase in new cases was expected to first increase and eventually as the number of potential new victims declines, that rate would also decrease.  Since October, the number of new cases coming out of Liberia has been reported with either an asterisk or a symbol for approximately, because those doing the counting realized that these numbers were unreliable.  The latest report from October 14th, Liberia doesn't even have a confirmed number next to the asterisk; there is just an asterisk in that slot, so it is anyone's guess.

We are sending our troops armed with a pair of gloves and a mask into an Ebola hot zone, directing them to sleep inside Liberian hotels and evacuated government buildings. No one knows the percentage of Liberians now infected but a fair guesstimate would likely be between 1/800 and 1/100, realistically this being closer to the 1/100.  Their mission goal remains elusive and when a general presiding over these troops was asked what will you do about infected American soldiers, he essentially said to the reporter that he would have to get back to us on that question.  He did acknowledge that he is not aware of any facility that has been designated accept infected soldiers. For a full transcript of the dizzying acrobatics  our general performed read this American Thinker post.

I don't think that Liberia is a functional country any longer, although people might argue that it wasn't functional for a very long time. I think that their ability to deliver healthcare is practically non-existent and when we send our troops there, they will be swamped by ailing natives. They will be expected to provide food and protection for these natives.  It is probably worth noting that the neighboring countries have a listed average IQ in the mid 60's with Equatorial Guinea being listed at 59 and Liberia not even listed on the chart.  



Welcome to Idiocracy headed by Prez Obola the 1st. Soon we'll all jokingly say to one another -  we're all Liberians now. Also don't forget that this joker is trying to pick a fight with Russia at this moment. Even though Russia is not on sound ground financially, I find it hard to believe that their administration is staffed by as many idiots as ours. England is. 

So, my advice to you as a doctor of medicine- get incoherently drunk and think happy thoughts.




Friday, October 3, 2014

More on Ebola

For some reason, the people who travel outside of the Ebola hot zone, that is Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea, are complete assholes. Duncan who fled to the US, slept with his girlfriend here even though he was sick and knew what he probably had. When he was finally admitted to the hospital, his "family" here refused to remain under quarantine until the sheriff arrived and pointed a gun at these crazies. Also, consider the account of Patrick Sawyer, the man who went to Nigeria and led to the deaths of many people including the doctor who cared for him. This lunatic laid on the floor of the airport squirming in pain, and collapsed when he got into Nigeria. There he acted like a madman after being told that he may have Ebola, took off his pants and started urinating on the medical staff.  Meanwhile crazy Liberians tried to get him out of the hospital for God only knows what reasons. Furthermore, there is an account of some prominent Liberian doctor strolling into an Ebola treatment center without any protection and proclaiming that there is no such thing as Ebola. He died several days later of it.

Perhaps there is something about this virus that turns people into dangerous madmen, or perhaps we are just hearing about the dangers of Ebola stricken madmen because the normal victims of this illness die in peace and isolation. We will be hearing a lot about such cases in the coming weeks and months. 

On the home-front, we are totally unprepared for this illness. I am certain that at this point someone is walking about NYC with this virus and spreading it to others.  Duncan is not the only jerk in this country with this illness.  Doctors are scarred, especially ED docs because there is no proper screening and no place for isolation in the emergency rooms. In the first several days with symptoms, it is impossible to distinguish Ebola from any other virus causing gastroenteritis. If we do suspect someone as having Ebola, how do we isolate him from the rest of the hospital? Sure we have isolation rooms, but we have never dealt with such a deadly virus before. The bio-hazard suits are nice but they need to be put on somewhere safe and removed someplace safe. I don't know of any hospital in NYC that has a decontamination area set up in a ward. In most circumstances, people will put on protective clothing and remove them in a busy hallway, following which foot traffic will spread whatever was on the floor of the isolation room to the rest of the hospital ward floor. 

The center of our inadequate response is that many people are simply going through the motions of doing something that is needed to protect us. That happens at the level of ill trained hospital workers, and it happens at multiple levels of the administration. The talking heads from Washington, the CDC and other government agencies are speaking nonsense because for much of their lives all they ever had to do is pretend.  The truth is that they do not know what they are doing, and if you ask one to do something, they will only posture.  That is all they are capable of. The people they have surrounded themselves with are often times no better. That is why Obamacare was such a fiasco, our economy is failing, and even the secret service has become a joke.  And yet, we depend on these people for our lives and our livelihood. 

All in all, sad and frightening.

Ebola in America

In my last post I said, that people will run from the highly infected regions such as Liberia. The first such known runner is Thomas Eric Duncan.  He knew that he was at high risk for developing this disease as he just handled a person dying from Ebola and others where he lived died from it. Attempts to get a dying Ebola patient to a medical center proved futile in Liberia because all treatment centers are full, so he needed an escape plan. He got on a plane and went to his family in Texas, and several days later tried to get himself checked into a medical center, just as he was beginning to develop symptoms. When he was turned away, family came up with a plan to get him into that center, they called the CDC. It turned out that his fears were well founded as testing confirmed his infection with the Ebola virus. The man and his family must have known about his potentially deadly illness or else they wouldn't have made such an effort to bring him here and and get him into a hospital.

I am not surprised that a runner was found in the U.S.  I am not sure that it is appropriate to call him patient zero because he is likely to be one of many such zeroes we will soon hear about. That is what most concerns me. How many other such runners will emerge since we haven't done a thing to quarantine the infected population in West Africa.

I am also not sure why Americans and American companies are waiting for Obama to call for suspension of travel to and from these areas? Why does it all depend on Zero?

Sunday, September 28, 2014

Ebola Updates.

From a September 23rd publication of this article in NEJM, there are a number of graphs and tables that track current Ebola cases. The last observed data points are from end of August and projections for September are far below the numbers recently cited by CDC. The upper limits within the projected curves appear to be about 1/2 of the actual reported numbers. Therefore disease spread appears to be accelerating and while the last reported total case count is 6,263 with half of them dead, the number of cases by mid October will likely be much higher than the 14,000 predicted earlier. I think it will be closer to 30,000.  Medical delivery systems also seem to be breaking down in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea. These are the countries most affected by this epidemic. To make matters even scarier, today I read that Congo , I think the Democratic Republic of..., just reported an outbreak. While Liberia has about 4 million people with latest reported number just above 3,000 infections (that's one infected person per thousand), Congo has 77 million people.
So please consider what these projections mean for the above mentioned countries. While 1/1000 people are currently infected, the CDC expects the epidemic to reach one of 1/100 people by January and if nothing changes, one in 10 will be infected there in the Spring of 2015. One half of them will die.

People are going to run...

Run where?

Another important note to consider: If the disease spread really continues according to these predictions, then I don't think it is being spread by solely through the exposure to fluids of an infected person. If it really is that infectious, then airborne spread is likely and people hanging around the sick should be wearing their own air supply.  N95 masks may not be enough considering only a few viral particles are enough to transmit the infection.

On a final note, consider the panic that will hit NYC when a infected person with Ebola is diagnosed there and someone starts coughing on the subway. Consider what will happen if this epidemic reaches Mexico City.  this may prove to be a very volatile winter.

Saturday, September 27, 2014

Why it is wrong to call the Oklahoma murderer a lone wolf.

The vicious murder of a Christian woman was not an isolated incident or one perpetrated by an uncontrolled schizophrenic. Every day, Muslims attack the rest of us and those that actually commit these murders, are surrounded by cheerleaders in their community. How often do we hear about recent converts into this religion, that "suddenly" wage violent jihad? How often do we see evidence of agitation for such murders that take place in their mosques? Are their cheerleaders and spiritual guides really blameless?

One solution would be to demolish the mosque that he attended and deport his imam and everyone else that urged this jackass to commit this barbarity.  If there is no place to deport them, then I would send them to prison until they learn to behave themselves like descent people. On a concluding note, this really is a war against the American people, our society, and our choice of government. In a war, killing the enemy is the long established norm. Otherwise you are destined to lose the war.

Thursday, August 21, 2014

How We Lose Wars.

I was home watching TV today and on the History channel, shows about the Vietnam war played much of the day. The news stories of were uniformly opposed to American involvement. At one point they showed how crossing into Cambodia, allowed American forces to capture huge arms depots from the North Vietnamese. Essentially Cambodia was a safe zone where North Vietnamese would hide their forces and equipment. This move into Cambodia should have been hailed as a military victory, but instead it led to non-stop student protests and condemnation from MSM news sources. According to History channel, Americans were treated to a non-stop barrage of pictures of disfigured American soldiers; 90 percent of all news shows were devoted to this narrative every day.  When you think of Communist infiltrators affecting political decisions within our government, a much more successful infiltration affected our news culture and Hollywood.  No wonder we pulled out of Vietnam in defeat.

In recent conflicts, we went into Iraq and quickly succeeded in most of our military goals. At the time this war began, most of the American public were solidly behind this action and news stories were also largely supportive of our armed forces but, in time, this changed.  Obama achieved the destruction of all American achievements from the Bush era and under the current barrage of defeatist propaganda I don't see how we can defeat anyone.

We have a divisive leadership in the White House, MSM works towards same goal of weakening our country, and the culture permeating colleges and entertainment is also one of defeatism.  Under present conditions, we can only lose.  We must change our situation at home, if we are to survive as a nation and if we are to save our civilization.

Wednesday, August 6, 2014

Ebola Concerns.

Two good articles address this topic at today's American Thinker web site. It appears that there is a reasonable concern for possible airborne transmission of this virus and the medical staff working with the 2 returned American patients are appropriately dressed. This also explains London's actions regarding cancelling flights to parts of West Africa dealing with this epidemic.  Read for yourself here and here.

On the other hand, is the attention being given to Ebola another distraction? The border crisis in the US and a whole host of other problems caused by the Obama administration, aren't receiving as much news coverage now.  This administration certainly excels at taking us from one crisis to another.